主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟 【国关青年说】井源洋:一波未平一波又起,印度在“天灾”面前该何去何从?
浏览:60 发布日期:2020-07-01

总的来说,印度目前的窘境既有天灾的因素:即“三大自然灾害的围攻”,也有人为的因素:民众防疫意识浅薄、政府行动力缓慢等。客观的因素在于印度薄弱的基础设施和缺乏活力的政治体制与复杂的民族宗教关系等。因此,在我看来,印度在摆脱困境的道路上仍需要不断的努力。

[1]刘沐轩.《疫情,热浪和蝗灾,三大危机冲击下的印度经济》.时代财经.2020.06.02

一,印度“大流行病、热浪、沙漠蝗侵袭”相互交织的概况

2. India under "Pandemic, Heat Wave, Desert Locust Attack"

(一)从社会政治角度分析:首先,就CVDID-19确诊人数来看,疫情已在印度大规模传播。感染人数的激增,暴露出印度央地政府配合不协调的问题尖锐。许多在野党趁疫情恶化大搞示威,比如在3月16日,该邦的两大主要政党——执政党草根国大党与印人党——仍为选举举行了规模巨大的造势活动。印人党孟加拉分部的最高领导人,带领追随者在加尔各答及其郊区举行大规模的游行活动,并在广场发表了公众演说。草根国大党也作出回应,在全邦举行了造势活动。这些活动都有上百人参加,且与会者都未戴口罩。各党派间忙于斗争,普通民众成为博弈的砝码。疫情使印度的社会矛盾激化,民众抱怨 印度政府的无能,政府却无力改变这一现状。不仅如此,早就存在的印穆冲突在疫情期间显得更加严重,印度主要社交媒体将疫情在印度大规模扩散的原因归咎于是穆斯林带来的,这使得两者之间的关系更加恶化。从政府管控的角度来看,炎热的天气与匮乏的电力使得人们不顾“居家令”的约束,纷纷跑到外面来躲避高温,文件在灾难面前形同一张白纸,本就严重的阶级矛盾变得更加复杂。

Reference

关键词:蝗灾;2019冠状病毒病;高温热浪;莫迪政府

(二)从经济产业角度分析:OECD(经济合作与发展组织)调低了对印度2020-21财年的GDP增速的预期,由之前的6.2%降至5.1%。原本生机勃勃的“印度制造”在疫情的摧残下陷入发展僵局。由于中国原料药生产能力及物流尚未完全开通,印度本土原料药价格大幅上涨。即使是“印度制造”引以为傲的电子制造业也出现供应链断裂的危机,无数工厂产量急剧下降,甚至出现停工停产和破产重组的情况,企业发不出工资,工人失业,因此造成的社会整体失业率高达25%以上。与此同时,蝗虫的侵袭使印度西部和中部的农作物遭受到了毁灭性打击,印度政府鼓励使用杀虫剂灭蝗,这也导致印度的杀虫剂库存一度告急主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,只得从别国进口。有印度学者预测主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,蝗灾将造成印度粮食减产30%-50%。这将意味着作为粮食出口大国的印度届时会进口一定数量的农产品来弥补国内需求。但灾难并没有结束主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,紧跟其后的高温天气对印度又是另一大考验。高温天气推动了家庭用电的增长主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,但印度的电力基础设施显得不足以应对如此大规模的使用。据印度政府6月1日公布数据的显示主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,印度的发电量在4月同比下跌了24%主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,5月同比下跌14.3%主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,这意味着印度的电力供应量仍然供不应求。

1. India's "pandemics, heat waves, desert locust invasions" overview

Introduction: Under the influence of COVID-19 pandemic, India was forced to shutdown the economy to ensure the social stability of this country. But it never rains but it pours, the sheer number of desert locusts and hot weather made it harder for Indians. The development of the disaster in India has expanded further because the government failed to respond to the disaster in a timely manner. In such a difficult situation, what should the government and people of India do? What measures should they take to get out of their predicament?

然而主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,屋漏偏逢连夜雨。5月之后主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,印度新德里迎来了近十年的最高温主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,疫情期间无数呆在家中的民众被迫走出家门外出寻求庇护。高温的天气使人无法在街头长期使用口罩主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,有些人将口罩拉到下巴下面主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,或干脆不戴口罩。而这种行为的产生跟印度经济基础薄弱主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,基础设施差主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,无法提供有效的住房空间有着直接的关系。

●【国关青年说】2020年“国关青年说”专栏征稿启事

[2]马鹏桓主人给我注射催奶药污漫画无翼鸟,毛克疾.《印度疫情治理及其影响》.凤凰网国际智库.2020.03.25

[3]环球网|《沙漠蝗严重,印度警察按响警笛赶蝗虫》.2020.05.28

引言:在2019冠状病毒病的影响下,印度被迫停掉经济来保障稳定。但祸不单行,数量庞大的沙漠蝗和高温天气使得印度人的处境更加困难。由于政府没能就灾难做出及时反应,灾难在印度的发展进一步扩大化。面临如此的窘境,印度政府与民众又该何去何从?他们又该采取各种措施来摆脱窘境?

摘要:2019冠状病毒病,热浪与沙漠蝗相互交织侵袭印度,导致印度社会经济遭受到重大挫折,虽然莫迪政府采取一系列措施应对,但收效甚微。在“天灾面前”,印度又该如何摆脱困境,迎接新的生活?对于印度现状,本文从采取观察法,因果分析法等方法从社会政治,经济产业,医疗卫生的角度分析灾难对印度的影响。又针对莫迪政府采取的措施进行评析,同时追踪“印度方案”的深层次问题,并进行集中思考。从印度采取措施所产生的效果的角度去分析问题的根源所在,对“三大天灾”围困下的莫迪政府如何积极调整对策的思考。

[5]Emily schmall.Virus, Heat Wave and Locusts Form perfect Storm in India. the Associated press. May 26.2020

(3) From the point of view of medical and health: although India is a large pharmaceutical producer and people enjoy free medical treatment in there, its sanitation condition is very poor, and COVID-19 medical supplies are lack. India has large population and the slum gathering, and this large-scale outbreak was began in slums. The number of infections has increased several times in just a few weeks because of lack of control. The surge in infections is in stark contrast to the shortage of medical equipment, which india's Livemint newspaper reported on april 29th :" by mid-late may, in states with a large number of confirmed cases, the shortage of hospital beds and ventilators will become more serious and the medical system may collapse ."

二,“大流行病、热浪、沙漠蝗侵袭”下的印度

文章来源:国关国政外交学人微信公众平台专栏稿件

展开全文

(2) From an economic and industrial perspective: OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) lowered its forecast for India's GDP growth in fiscal year 2020-21 from 6.2 per cent to 5.1 per cent. The once vibrant "made in india" has been deadlocked by the outbreak. India's local API prices have risen sharply as China's API production capacity and logistics are not fully operational. Even the electronic manufacturing industry, which is proud of "made in India", is facing a crisis of supply chain disruption, with the output of numerous factories plummeting, and even shutdown, bankruptcy and reorganization, Enterprises can't pay, workers are unemployed, resulting in overall social unemployment of more than 25 per cent. At the same time, locusts have devastated crops in western and central India, and the Indian government has encouraged the use of pesticides to kill locusts, which has led to a rush to import pesticides from other countries. Indian scholars predict that locust infestations will result in a 30-50% reduction in food production. That would mean that india, a big food exporter, would then import a certain amount of farm produce to make up for domestic demand. But the disaster is not over, and the heat that follows is another test for India. High-temperature weather is driving the growth of home electricity use while india's electricity infrastructure seems inadequate to cope with such large-scale use. India's electricity generation fell 24% year-on-year in April and 14.3% year-on-year in May according to figures released by the government on June 1, which shows that electricity supply in India is still in short supply.

四,对“印度方案”所产生效果的反思

海国图智研究院助理研究员

在全球疫情防控中,多数国家已有小幅回落,防控效果初现端倪,但巴西和印度两个国家却是逆道而行。据WHO与霍普金斯大学网站的数据显示,在6月5日,印度新冠疫情单日新增感染人数已达8372人,累计确诊229594人,治愈109886人,死亡6381人。新增感染人数较前两周同期增长了一倍。由此可以断言,印度政府并未有效管控好疫情。

[4]Asuka.《印度困境:新冠肺炎升至全球第7,经济变差欲解封》.数据GD

(图片来源:数据GD)(Image Source: Data GD WeChat Official Accounts)

3. the "India Plan" under the "Three Natural Disasters"

(3) In terms of people's livelihood security: Firstly, the "Prime Minister's Care Fund" was set up, and the government came forward to raise money from the society and used it for the prevention and control of the pandemic. Secondly, the provision of a 90-day insurance scheme for community health workers has addressed the concerns of health workers. Thirdly, 150 billion rupees funded by the government has been used to treat patients of COVID-19 and improve basic medical facilitie. Fourthly, launching policies to ensure the safety of living materials and supply of living materials. Last but not least, calling on high-income people such as business owners to strengthen the care of the public, so as to alleviate the increasingly intensified social contradictions.

三,“三大天灾”围困下的“印度方案”

[6]南方时报|《每平方公里1.5亿只!蝗群铺天盖地扑向印度首都,部分城市被淹没》.2020年5月27日文章

参考文献

(图片来源:数据GD)(Image Source: Data GD WeChat Official Accounts)

Absrtact :COVID-19 pandemic, heat wave and desert locust interweave into India, resulting in India suffered major social and economic setbacks, although the Modi government has taken a series of measures to deal with, but the effects were feeble. In the face of "natural disasters ", how should India get out of the predicament and meet a new life? For the present situation of India, this paper analyzes the impact of disaster on India from the perspective of social politics, economic industry and health care by means of observation method and causality analysis method. Meanwhile, the measures taken by Modi government are analyzed, and the deep-seated problems of the "India Program" are tracked and concentrated. From the point of view of the effect of measures taken by India, this paper analyzed the root causes of these problems, and thought about how to adjust strategies of the modi government under the siege of "three natural disasters".

(1) In the aspect of disaster management: At the international level, international traffic controls should be strengthened to prevent the importation of the coronavirus, including health screening of incoming passengers and the ban on international passenger flights. At the domestic level, the Modi government has issued several "stay-at-home order" to encourage people to prevent and control the pandemic at home. Concentrated isolation of infected people will be arranged, migrant workers will unifiedly train to their hometowns. while the government issued policies, many indian civil medical groups spontaneously organized into anti-pandemic teams, compared with the government macro-control, small groups are more flexible and targeted. At the social level, in order to reduce the pressure on medical services, the public is urged to minimize the number of visits to hospitals for routine examinations. In addition, many state governments have gradually opened parks and step-wells to cool off outside people because of hot weather. Due to the scarcity of water in India, local state governments use bagged water subsidies to ensure water use . Compared to the first two, the problem of locusts is more difficult, locusts in India multiplied produce and destroy crops, the resulting food crisis is more related to the survival of the people. Facing locusts, the public can only rely on government and social forces to fight. Local state governments set up ground locust tracking teams and arranged drones for real-time follow-up of pesticide spraying, but for pesticide-poor state governments, managers even encouraged people to play loud music and beat drums to drive away locusts.

但热浪带来的危害显然不止于此,适宜的温度和气候,为沙漠蝗提供了良好的栖息之地,来自东非的沙漠蝗飞越阿拉伯半岛与伊朗高原侵袭印度西部和中部地区,大量的农田遭受毁灭性打击。印度蝗虫预警组织副主任古杰尔说:“拉贾斯坦邦和中央邦的一些地区活跃着八到十个蝗虫群,每个蝗虫群的面积达到了越一平方公里”。这是印度近27年来规模最大的蝗虫灾害,但更可怕的是蝗虫的繁殖能力及破坏力。在有利条件下,其种群数量可以在三个月之内增加数十倍,若之前蝗虫基数足够大,再加上没有很好的治理,蝗虫群的数量将会成几何倍数增长,它们吞噬植物直至植物无法生长为止。

More than that, the appropriate temperature and climate provide desert locusts a good habitat, desert locusts from east africa across the arabian peninsula and the iranian plateau, hitting western and central india, which devastated a large number of farmland. "There are eight to ten swarms active in some areas of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, each covering an area of more than one square kilometer, " said Gujar, deputy director of the Indian locust warning organization. This is the largest locust disaster in India in nearly 27 years, but what's worse is the power and destructive power of locusts. Under favourable conditions, the biomass production can increase tens of times in three months, and if the locust base is large enough, the number of locusts will increase in geometric multiples without good governance, devouring plants until they can not grow.

(三)从医疗卫生角度分析:印度虽然是医药生产大国,人们享受免费医疗,但是其卫生条件极差,且抗疫物资匮乏。印度的人口众多,且贫民窟人口聚集,此次大规模的爆发就是从贫民窟开始的。由于没有防控到位,感染人数在短短数周呈数倍增长。感染人数的骤增与医疗设备的短缺形成了鲜明的对比,印度《明特报》电子版4月29日报道称:“到5月中下旬,在确诊病例较多的邦,隔离病床和呼吸机短缺问题将更加严重,医疗体系可能崩溃。”

(二)在经济发展方面:虽然疫情在印度不仅没有消退,反而有加剧的状况。但莫迪政府仍然决定在6月份之后,放开对商场和游乐场等人口密集地区的限制来刺激经济。为了缓解财政压力和降低失业率,莫迪政府放宽了对矿产资源开发的限制,允许私人承包开发矿产资源。此举在印度引起了激烈的争论。此后,印度政府又逐步放开对港口的限制,积极从国外进口经济建设所需的原材料。莫迪政府企图利用经济复苏来支撑防疫设备的生产,同时加强基础设施建设,以提高印度在应对困难的综合实力。印度政府4月20日以来允许确诊病例较少的地区重启农业和基础设施等特定领域的经济活动。还以政策形式规定金融服务机构延缓偿还期限三个月。

IV. Reflections on the effect of the "India Programme"

From the perspective of the Indian government, it was relatively aloof and indifferent at the early stage of COVID-19 and did not stop the large-scale spread of the pandemic in time. After the outbreak, due to the inconsistent pace between the central and local governments, it is difficult for the central government to effectively implement its policies to the local governments. From the perspective of social response, "the COVID-19 is unlikely to spread in the tropics", "drinking cow urine can prevent the COVID-19",these rumors are believed to be effective measures by many Indian people. Besides, there were too many religious prayer gathering activities after the pandemic, which brought a great opportunity for the spread of the pandemic. From the perspective of the effect of fighting against the pandemic, the huge population and limited medical equipment make this free medical medicine producer vulnerable to the COVID-19. From the perspective of social governance effect, the call of the government has not been actively responded by the people, and the government has not taken effective enforcement measures to exert pressure on the people. In terms of the effect of dealing with locust disaster, the shortage of domestic pesticide materials forced people to adopt original methods without scientific control measures. From the perspective of measures to cope with heated weather, due to the lack of electric power and water resources in India, the Indian government has to take measures such as opening parks, diverting flow of people , which undoubtedly aggravates the risk of the spread of the pandemic. Furthermore , India's industrial structure is incomplete and its infrastructure is obsolete. From the perspective of measures to protect people's livelihood, India's short-term and large-scale investment seems to be a drop in the bucket. Although it has played a role in stimulating the society, it has put huge financial pressure on the government. The modi government has adopted a series of economic recovery plans, which are nothing more than robbing peter to pay paul and abandoning environmental resources to maintain economic stability and increase employment rate.

疫情,高温,蝗灾三大天灾交织进攻印度,给印度社会发展带来了难以估量的损失,可以说,印度迎来了史上最艰难的时期,印度政府也采取一系列措施来应对不断加剧的困难。从印度政府应对疫情所采取的措施来看,主要涉及灾害治理,稳定经济与民生保障三个方面:

内容提要

(三)在民生保障方面:第一,设立“总理关怀基金”,由政府出面向社会募捐,并用于疫情的防控。第二,向社区卫生工作者提供为期90天的保险计划,为卫生工作人员解决了后顾之忧。第三,由政府出资1500亿卢比用于治疗2019冠状病毒病患者和完善基础医疗设施。第四,发布政策确保生活物资安全,并保障生活物资的供应。第五,呼吁企业主等高收入人群加强对普通民众的关照,以此缓解日益激化的社会矛盾。

However, the bad thing come in succession. After May, new delhi suffered the hottest weather in nearly a decade, which forced countless stay-at-home people leaving their homes to seek refuge. People on the streets can't wear masks for a long time in such heated weather, some pulling the masks under their chin or simply not wearing them. This behavior is directly related to India's weak economic foundation, poor infrastructure and inability to provide spacious housing space.

(一)在灾害治理方面:在国际层面,加强国际交通管制,防止新冠病毒境外输入,其中包括对入境旅客的健康筛查与禁飞国际客运航班等。在国内层面,莫迪政府先后几次发布“居家令”,鼓励民众在家中防控疫情。对已感染的人群进行集中隔离,将在城务工人员安排在专列上统一遣返回乡,在政府发布政策的同时,许多印度民间医学团体自发组织成抗疫的队伍,较之政府宏观管控,小团体更具有灵活和针对性。在社会层面,为减轻医疗服务机构的压力,呼吁民众尽量减少去医院做常规检查等。另外,对于因为炎热的天气而外出的民众,许多州政府逐步的开放公园和台阶井等区域供民众乘凉。由于印度自来水匮乏,地方州政府采取袋装水补贴的方式来确保民众用水。相比前两项,蝗虫的问题显得更加棘手,蝗虫在印度大量繁殖并破坏农作物,造成的粮食危机更是关乎到民众的生存问题。普通民众面对蝗虫手足无措,只能依靠政府与社会力量来抗击。地方邦政府采取设置地面蝗虫追踪小组,并安排无人机进行实时跟进喷洒农药,但在农药匮乏的邦政府,管理者甚至鼓励民众大声播放音乐,敲打铁皮鼓等方式驱赶蝗虫。

The pandemic, heat wave, locust plague,three natural disasters intertwinedly attack India, bringing incalculable losses to India's social development, it can be said that India has ushered in the most difficult period in history, the Indian government has also taken a series of measures to deal with the growing difficulties. From the measures taken by the Indian government to deal with the pandemic, it mainly involves three aspects: disaster management, economic stability and livelihood security:

(1) From a socio-political perspective: First, in terms of CVDID-19 number of confirmed cases, the pandemic has spread on a large scale in India. The surge in the number of infections has exposed a acute problem of coordination between central and local governments. Many opposition parties have staged demonstrations amid the worsening of the pandemic, for instance, on march 16th, the state's two main parties —— the ruling Trinamool Congress party and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, continued to hold a massive campaign for elections. The top leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party's Bangladesh branch, led his followers to a large-scale parade in Kolkata and its suburbs, and delivered public speeches in the square. Trinamool Congress also responded by holding a campaign across the country. Hundreds of people attended the event and none of the participants wore masks. Political struggles among the parties have made ordinary people a game. The pandemic has intensified social tensions in India, where people complain about the government's incompetence, however, the government is unable to change the situation. Moreover, the long-standing Indian-Murkish conflict was exacerbated during the outbreak, when the major Indian social media blamed Muslims for its massive spread, exacerbating the relationship. From the point of view of government control, hot weather and the lack of electricity caused people to go outside to avoid the heat and regardless of the "stay-at-home order". Government documents is more like a blank sheet in the face of disaster. Moreover, serious class contradictions have become more complex, owing to weak government control and widespread online rumors.

In general, India's current predicament is not only natural disaster factors: that is, the "siege of the three natural disasters ", but also man-made factors: people's unawareness of pandemic prevention, uneffective government action and so on. Objective factors are India's weak infrastructure and lack of dynamic political institutions and complex ethnic and religious relations. Therefore, in my opinion, India has a long way to go on the way out of difficulties.

原标题:【国关青年说】井源洋:一波未平一波又起,印度在“天灾”面前该何去何从?

Keywords: locust plague; COVID-19 pandemic ; heat wave; Modi government

In the global pandemic prevention and control, most countries have taken a turn for the better., the effect of prevention and control is beginning to appear, except for Brazil and India. According to the WHO and Johns Hopkins University website data, on June 5, new cases of COVID-19 in India have reached 8372 people, total case were 229594 people, 109886 people were cured, and 6381 people dead. The number of new infections doubled from the same period in the previous two weeks. It can be concluded that the Indian government has not effectively copied with the pandemic .

(2) In terms of economic development: Instead of disappearing, the pandemic has intensified in India. But the Modi government still decided to stimulate the economy after June by liberalizing restrictions on populated areas such as shopping malls and amusement park. In order to ease financial pressure and reduce unemployment, Modi's government relaxed restrictions on mineral resources development, allowing private contracting to develop mineral resources. The move has sparked heated debate in India. Since then, the Indian government has gradually liberalized restrictions on ports and actively imported raw materials for economic construction from abroad. Modi's government is trying to use economic recovery to support the production of pandemic prevention equipment, while strengthening infrastructure to improve India's overall strength in coping with the difficulties. Since 20 April, the Government of India has allowed regions with fewer confirmed cases to restart economic activity in specific areas such as agriculture and infrastructure. Financial services institutions are also subject to a three-month moratorium in the form of policies.

从印度政府层面来看,印度政府初期对疫情比较麻痹,没有及时制止疫情的大规模传播。在爆发以后,由于中央与地方的步调不一致,中央的政策到地方很难有效的贯彻。从社会反应层面来看,“新冠病毒不太会在热带地区传播”、“喝牛尿可以预防新冠病毒”等言论被众多印度民众信奉为有效措施。且在疫情爆发后,宗教祷告的聚集活动过多,给疫情的传播带来了绝佳的机会。从抗击疫情的效果来看,庞大的人口数量与有限的医疗设备,使这个免费医疗的医药生产大国在承受2019新冠病毒病时显得不堪一击。从社会治理效果来看,政府的号召并没有得到民众的普遍响应,政府也未能采取有效的强制措施对民众施加压力。从对付蝗灾的效果来看,国内农药物资的短缺,迫得人们采取原始的方法,且缺乏科学的管控措施。从应对高温天气的措施来看,由于印度电力的匮乏和水资源的短缺,印度政府只得采取开放公园、分流避暑等措施,但这无疑加剧了疫情扩大的危险性。更深层次来看,印度的产业结构不完整,基础设施太差。从保障民生的措施来看,印度短期大规模的投资似乎是杯水车薪,虽然起到了激励社会的作用,但却让政府背负巨大的财政压力。莫迪政府采取一系列的经济复苏计划,也不过是拆东墙补西墙,舍弃环境资源,来保住经济稳定和提高就业率。

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中新社香港5月24日电 “香港各界撑国安立法联合阵线”24日晚表示,截至当日晚9时30分,“撑国家安全立法”全港街头和网上签名行动首日已收到493016个香港市民签名,其中于街站收集签名380191个,网上参与签名的市民有112825个。

5月24日晚,武汉大学官网发布讣告,中国共产党优秀党员,著名马克思主义哲学家、教育家,武汉大学原校长、人文社会科学资深教授,哲学学院教授、博士生导师陶德麟先生,因病医治无效,于2020年5月24日17时08分在武汉逝世,享年89岁。遵照陶德麟先生生前遗愿并考虑到当前疫情防控形势,陶先生丧事从简,不接收花圈,不举行遗体告别仪式,在网上设立纪念堂。陶德麟被称为我国哲学界“拨乱反正和思想解放的领路人之一”“新时代马克思主义哲学中国化的杰出代表”和“我国马克思主义研究领域最前沿的、最有影响的前辈学人之一”,被称为“德高学范”的“学界泰斗”和“哲学宗师”。

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据世界田联官网消息,2020年钻石联赛当地时间11日在挪威首都奥斯陆迎来本赛季的“首秀”。空场比赛、隔空对决、大量非正式比赛项目的设置让这场定位为表演赛的田径比赛显得有些另类,挪威名将沃尔霍姆刷新男子300米栏世界最好成绩成为本场比赛的最大亮点。

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